Playoff Chances

rallygnome814dThe Nationals now hold a record that will be tough to beat in 2014 given the limited number of games left.  Last night they walked off with their 10th win in a row.  It’s pretty certain the Nats are heading to the playoffs.  Who else is going?  What’s the current state of the contenders?

American League:

Sure Things:

Orioles – According to ESPN, they have a 97.4% chance of making the playoffs.  They have been hot lately, riding a 4 game win streak and winning 7 of their last 10.

Royals – 72.6% chance.  They have been flying high while Detroit is doing their best to beat themselves.  They have a slim 1.5 game lead over the Tigers.

Angels & Athletics – Nearly tied at 98%+ chance.  The two best records in baseball have the highest odds to get in the playoffs for the American league.  In reality they are both around 100% but nothing is guaranteed and while the Angels have been surging, the Athletics have lost 8 of their last 10.

Contenders:

Detroit & Seattle are perhaps going to duke it out over the second wild card spot with the edge on Seattle right now.  Seattle doesn’t score a lot of runs (toward the bottom of the AL), but their pitching has been top notch and they hold the lowest team ERA post All Star break and lead the league in fewest runs allowed at just 2.5 per game.  The Mariners runs scored is low at 3.9 per game but it’s enough to support what their pitching has been doing.

Longer shots:

The Yankees and Blue Jays are on their heels but I don’t expect the Yankees to get a spot unless perhaps Tanaka returns to the rotation.  And don’t discount the Indians just yet.  A half game back behind the Yankees and Blue Jays but they came on strong in September last season.  The Rays are still in contention but they need to do something amazing to get there.

See you next year:

Red Sox(How the mighty have fallen), White Sox (better than the Cubs!), Twins (not this time), Astros (still rebuilding?), Texas (currently worst record in MLB)

National League:

Sure Things:

Nationals – 98.7% Chance.  This team is on fire!

Brewers – Hitting is a bit down from pre All Star break but pitching is getting better.  They sit at 89.9%

Dodgers – Unlike the Yankees, they have bought their way into the playoffs with the #1 highest salary in baseball.  Their remaining schedule is pretty easy and they have Kershaw.  Done deal.

Giants – The Giants could still blow up but currently are set to go into the playoffs – most likely as a wild card team.  The Braves are hot on their heels.

Contenders:

The Cardinals and Braves both are going to give the Giants a run for the two wildcard spots.

Longer shots:

The Pirates are not far behind but have dropped 7 of their last 10.  At .500, the Marlins are still in the running but I think just barely.

See you next year:

Reds (surging but it won’t hold), Mets (they were good once), Padres (maybe next year?), Phillies (horrible again), Cubs (as usual), Diamondbacks (blah), Rockies (second worst team in baseball)

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