Santiago vs. Kershaw vs. Santiago Factor

It’s not even fair to compare their stats so I won’t.  The Angels CAN win this game.  They have the offense to get it done and the bullpen to hold it down.

Looking at the offense you have Puljos who has a career .444 against the Dodgers ace.  Adding to that a .565 OBP and he has basically owned him.  Kendrick also has a career .417 against Kershaw which is pretty amazing as well.  However, no one else other than McDonald has hit better than .300 off him and if McDonald starts the way he’s been hitting this year then..  Hamilton, Trout and Calhoun are all unknowns with no career stats against Kershaw and Aybar has a respectable .273 though he’s been off lately.

Strategy – The Angels need to score early and often.  If Santiago gets behind in runs he will melt down faster than usual.

Predictions

• Trout will strike out at least once
• Puljos AND Hamilton will both get at least one hit
• The Angels will lose if Santiago pitches more than 5.2 innings
• The Angels will win if Santiago leaves the game with a lead intact

The Santiago Factor

Is Santiago getting better?  Well, he DOES continue to struggle with pitch count and a key factor in this game will be how long he is left in and if he gets pulled before he melts down.  Let’s look at his 14 starts this year:

1. 5.0 innings – 83 pitches – 10hits/walks – 4 Ks – 4 ER – LOSS
2. 4.1 innings – 94 pitches – 8hits/walks – 6 Ks – 4 ER – LOSS
3. 7.0 innings – 101 pitches – 6hits/walks – 3 Ks – 1 ER – No Decision
4. 5.2 innings – 119 pitches – 7hits/walks – 7 Ks – 0 ER – LOSS
5. 4.1 innings – 77 pitches – 7hits/walks – 3 Ks – 4 ER – LOSS
6. 6.0 innings – 102 pitches – 9hits/walks – 5 Ks – 5 ER – LOSS
7. 2.1 innings – 58 pitches – 8hits/walks – 2 Ks – 2 ER – LOSS
8. 6.0 innings – 98 pitches – 4hits/walks – 8 Ks – 0 ER – No Decision
9. 5.1 innings – 94 pitches – 7hits/walks – 4 Ks – 4 ER – LOSS
10. 4.0 innings – 67 pitches – 4hits/walks – 4 Ks – 0 ER – No Decision
11. 5.0 innings – 99 pitches – 9hits/walks – 7 Ks – 5 ER – No Decision
12. 6.0 innings – 101 pitches – 6hits/walks – 8 Ks – 3 ER – WIN
13. 5.0 innings – 99 pitches – 5hits/walks – 2 Ks – 5 ER – No Decision
14. 5.1 innings – 85 pitches – 3hits/walks – 3 Ks – 1 ER – No Decision

Only 1 win as a starter – on July 10th
Only 2 Quality Starts with one resulting in a win and the other a no decision – both of those have come since June 10th

Santiago hasn’t lost a game since Start #9 on June 15th

Does this mean he is getting better?  If you look at the starts above the line you see 9 starts with an average line like this:

5.0 innings – 92 pitches – 7hits/walks – 4.7 Ks – 2.7 ER

If you take the average after the line you get this:

5.0 innings – 90 pitches – 5.4hits/walks – 4.8 Ks – 2.8 ER

Using just those numbers, it’s pretty clear Santiago hasn’t really changed all that much.   Those who say he is pitching “better” need to look at the real facts.  His only win as as a starter came when the Angels destroyed Colby Lewis for 11 earned runs and beat the Rangers 15-6.  Santiago also gave up a home run in the 6th inning that game.  He still throws about 20 pitches per inning which makes it tough for him to be effect past 5 innings.

I stand by my comment that Santiago is a great middle reliever.  He is not (at least not currently) a good quality starter.  If he walks out on the mound for the 6th inning tonight and the Angels aren’t up by at least 3 – then it’s game over.